The Waiting Room

This Harvard poll makes it official:  millennials are getting hammered by the recession. And even of those who took refuge in college from the appalling labor market, 45% are having trouble staying there.  Two-thirds of those who are in community college acquiring skills to climb the job ladder are having difficulty finding the money to keep going.  Are these hard times going to deliver the “most progressive generation” of young Americans to the Republicans?   Don’t bet on it…

Jeff Goldsmith on Why Health Reform is Stuck

Progressives dislike the Rasmussen poll, but don’t shoot the messenger, even if he comes from the opposing camp.  Here’s what Rasmussen said this morning in the Wall Street Journal:

“The reason President Obama can’t move the numbers and build public support is because the fundamentals are stacked against him. Most voters believe the current plan will harm the economy, cost more than projected, raise the cost of care, and lead to higher middle-class taxes.”

Unfortunately, the wisdom of crowds is probably right on all four points. Congress is screwing this up.   A pointed example:   there are 19 million uninsured young people.  It COULD cost $50-60 a month to cover them/you, but by the time the social engineers in Congress get done reorganizing health insurance, it’ll cost north of $300 a month.  The difference:  a healthy subsidy to uninsured baby boomers, who COULD have been enrolled early in Medicare instead (which young people are ALREADY subsidizing thru their/your payroll taxes).

It’s anguishing to wonder if it’s better to start over and simply focus on covering the uncovered, rather than trying to, as Pete Stark put it once, “reinvent the marshmallow”.

Rasmussens’s article:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704784904575111993559174212.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion

Jeff Goldsmith on Hope and the Young Voter. . .

Barack Obama was elected President largely by an unprecedented outpouring of support from young voters, who responded both viscerally and intellectually to his message of hope and renewal. For them,  it’s been a truly bleak sixteen months since his election.  Over 7.1 million people between 16 and 34 are unemployed, and another 5 million or so have either given up looking or are working part time involuntarily.  Almost 19 million people between ages 18 and 34 are uninsured.   Young peoples’ dreams of independence, family formation, home ownership and careers have been on ice for well more than two years.

And yet among young people, support for the President has remained virtually unchanged (62% approval rating), while it has plummeted among their elders.  What do young people know that their elders don’t?   That it’s going to take more than a year to shake off the paralysis in Washington?  That it may take several election cycles to purge the poisonous cynicism and fear that prevents us from addressing our nation’s real problems?  That there are so many things that need to be addressed- not just health reform, but financial reform, climate change, renewal of our schools, redressing our nation’s toxic image abroad- that won’t go away unless they are dealt with?

I don’t think you voted wrong.  Barack Obama is the person you thought he was when you voted for him, and he won’t be able to do what he needs to do without your help and support.

The Bum Control Problem

Barack Obama came charging into office just thirteen months ago “fired up and ready to go”, with huge Congressional majorities and what they felt was a mandate to transform American society.  They told their voters that they wouldn’t pay a dimes’ more taxes (only the “rich” will pay more).  They flung billions of dollars in borrowed money at the banks, the auto industry, the teachers and public employees, they capped and traded and nearly nationalized our private health insurance system.  And their reward:  we hate it!

So much for “hope”.  It’s March, 2010 and we ain’t transformed.  28 million of us are either unemployed, out of the labor force or working part time involuntarily. Millions have lost their homes and are buried under a mountain of credit card debt.  The mood is ugly.

In crystal clear hindsight, it’s clear that 2008 wasn’t a “transformative” election- a mandate for government to save us from ourselves.  It was a “throw the bums out” election- a repudiation of George Bush and a venal, morally challenged Republican regime.

So, fifteen months later, the lynch mob is rallying and we’re getting ready to throw the Democrats out and hand control of Congress back to the Republicans!!?  Why?  What do they stand for? What are we going to get from them?  Do we trust them?  Are the bums we’re throwing back in going to be any more capable of governing or steering us in the right direction than the bums we’re throwing out?

What we’ve really got is a bum control problem.  At some point, we’re going to look in the mirror and see Clem Kadiddlehopper (above).  The real bums …  is us.

Jeff Goldsmith on Are the Republicans Pouring Themselves a Set of Cement Overshoes?

It is interesting to hear the Republicans recasting themselves as defenders of the “elderly” and their Medicare benefits. Since I’m eligible for Medicare in maybe four years, that word “elderly” doesn’t really do it for me.  I don’t believe the Republicans have suddenly become my best friend.

Those of us older than fifteen remember that Newt Gingrich and his Republican colleagues shut down the federal government in 1995 in a fight with President Clinton trying to force him to cut Medicare.   But because health reform relies on Medicare funding reductions, suddenly they’re against cutting Medicare. (Forget that cutting Medicare basically means paying doctors and hospitals less, not taking things away from grandmama… we’ll get to that later).

I’m a planner and forecaster, so I’m always thinking a little ahead.  The Republicans will be running this fall against Obama and the Democrats for the huge federal budget deficit (which they actually helped create). So how will they cut the deficit if they:

1) Will not Raise Taxes

2) Will not Cut Medicare (the balancing item in the federal budget)

3) Will not Cut Defense (because we’re fighting two wars they started)??

This is going to fun to watch.  Look for the return of voodoo economics!

Braveheart!  The Obama Final Push on Health Reform

This is a momentous week for health reform.  The President’s proposals this morning do not appear to be game changing.  Rather, by making the bill more expensive and proposing direct federal regulation of health insurance premiums, he seems to have tacked to the left to  shore up his own base. If the goal was to rebrand “health reform”, this morning’s package doesn’t get it done.  It is a pastiche of cautious tweaks, with one modest populist call-out to a frustrated Democratic left wing still pining for a “public option”.

On Friday, the Newsweek poll  found that crucial independent voters OPPOSED “Obama’s health reform proposals” 62% to 29% in favor.  Nothing in the President’s plan seems likely to strengthen independent voter support for the process, or make it easier for the “running scared” Democratic moderates to vote for the bill.  Health reform is still an incomprehensible, wonkish mess only a mother could love.

At the same time as he is preparing a “summit” with Republicans, his political operatives appear to be preparing to ram a modified bill through the Senate under a parliamentary maneuver requiring only 51 votes.  I think the Republicans are being set up- trolled for a You Tube-worthy gaffe that the White House can use to blame the collapse of this process on Republicans. (Remember what Edward I did to the Scottish partisans he lured to a peace meeting?)

This isn’t about Republican obstructionism.  It is divisions inside the Democratic party that will doom health reform, unless Obama can rally his frightened troops.   Nobody can fault the President for his courage. It is a dangerous game he is playing.   We’ll see how many of his colleagues are ready to die on the hill of health reform.  . .